Economics and the mid-life crisis have much in common: Both dwell on foregone opportunities

C'est la vie; c'est la guerre; c'est la pomme de terre . . . . . . . . . . . . . email: jpalmer at uwo dot ca

. . . . . . . . . . .Richard Posner should be awarded the next Nobel Prize in Economics . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Holy Rita!
Look out Galveston and Houston (or New Orleans)

I realize the MSM seem to be focused on the possibility that hurricane Rita might hit New Orleans. But these forecast possibilities show the centre of the forecast going just west of Galveston and Houston. If the hurricane does follow this path, and if it becomes as strong as some fear it might, Galveston and Houston are in for an especially big hit, since the worst of the wind and surge are on the eastern side of the eye of the storm. If I lived there, I'd be making motel reservations in Tulsa or Amarillo for this weekend.

Update: I gather, though, that in some models the projected path is being adjusted eastward, to take Rita over New Orleans (link from William Polley):

The latest GFDL model, one of the best hurricane models out there, is in fact showing a 150 MPH hurricane (strong category 4) slamming into New Orleans on Friday, with the NHC model taking it right through the city as well. The official NHC track will be adjusted eastward later today; they like to be conservative and want to make sure this thing is heading into Louisiana before they cause inevitable alarm along the Gulf coast. However, they should have 60 hours of lead time on this one, wherever it heads inland.

Just what those unfortunate people need... whew.

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