When will the NHL lockout end? (part 2)

With the recent proposal by the NHLPA (National Hockey League Players' Association) to the team owners [24% pay cut, luxury tax, some revenue sharing], many people have begun to attach a higher probability to there being an abbreviated 2004-5 NHL season [vs. no season at all]. From the Trono Globe & Mail:

[Andrew] Zimbalist, a professor at Smith College in Massachusetts and author of several books on the economics of sports, called the union's offer to roll back salaries 24 per cent across the board "a tremendous concession. ...

"I've been saying all along that the owners should be working with what the players gave them over a year ago because [the latest offer] is the same proposal, just the numbers are different," Zimbalist said. "It has the very same elements in it."

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman is to present the owners' response when the two sides meet on Tuesday. Although Bettman was publicly cool to the notion of a deal without a salary cap, Zimbalist believes the owners would be wise to strike an agreement based on what's been put before them.

There is an excellent summary of the issues, along with some interesting responses, at Off-Wing Opinion.

As I posted earlier, when I suggested to my students back in early November that the lockout would be settled by the end of December, they unanimously disagreed with me. I asked them again on December 12th, after the NHLPA offer had been made public; this time 60% of the students said they thought the lockout would be settled before the end of December.

Of course, if the lockout is settled, there will be at least one more posting here about my earlier prediction.